Trading Crypto: **Sunday Afternoon: Bitcoin Holds Up, But Price Action Is ‘Snooze Worthy’

Bitcoin overnight trading(US CST) sees the formation of a mid-scale pennant formed as the lower trend line allows the price to hold the 6400 support level. Going from about 6100 to 6600 as shown, the 500 point upshot gives one issue to the bull case for BTC with the fact that this is currently considered a retrace move by taking back about 1/3 of the previous leg down. Considering the long-term trend is still bearish, the case for BTC to continue higher must come in the form of a consistent pattern showing higher highs and higher lows taking back more than 1/2 of that same leg. This comes with BTC seeking out the 6800 resistance level and beyond – a hard feat at the moment.

Rogue* Analysis shows that as the mid-scale pennant has formed, there are two concrete angles to look at BTC. The downside sees a break at 6340 which will seek out the lows and beyond at the 6100 mark. The danger lies in the fact that as we discussed before if BTC is to seek out the 6k mark, this could spell trouble with the lower 5k region being sought out. The upside break would occur with price action going above 6560 to seek out the next resistance point.
Stochastic readings remain in the upper region.
MACD now crosses negatively giving downward momentum to price action but does so lightly.
BTC is currently a hold – downside protection at break point.

Resistance Is Futile; Bitcoin Continues To Bounce Between Tight Support And Resistance Bands

Bitcoin overnight trading(US CST) continues higher. The overall uptrend continues with higher highs and higher lows – a promising sign for the bulls. The low pivot at 6355 confirms the support pivot at 6360 in Rogue* Wave Analysis. This is an important note to make as this holds less than 1/2 of the previous leg up. The continuation of the trend also maintains through another minor pattern: a flag that was created hourly over the last day. BTC upside is to seek 6600 before hitting some form of resistance. However, keep in mind that the next true resistance point up lies at 6800. Support now stands firm at 6400.

Stochastic levels continue to seek higher areas as the mid-term and daily scale show buying power entering the market strong. MACD readings also remain positive, even if only slightly at this time.
BTC is currently a buy/hold.

Bitcoin Trading Range Remains Frustrating; Technical Patience Is Key To Capitalizing On Big Move Up Or Down

Bitcoin continues to stay in the mid 6k region as overnight (US CST) trading keeps the 6400 support mark somewhat intact, the 6250 mark fully intact, and of course, the major 6k level held firmly. This is good news for the bullish cause at the moment with uptrend continuation risk lowering as higher supports hold. Currently, a new Rogue* Wave track is prevalent. There is some form of retracement taking place as two tracks are sought out – the first already being achieved at 6400 support. Overnight trading touched the second as the 6360 level was achieved with almost perfect accuracy at 6355 – a mere 5 points away. However, what truly counts at this time will be the candle close*. Over the next 12 hours, this indicator alone will give a proper reading of where the wave analysis stands and therefore slight breakage of the pivot area at 6360 should be expected.

Stochastic levels now seek the oversold region(<20) and will justly bring price along to attain a higher low* which is what is needed for not only the continuation of the uptrend but two levels of lowered market risk. MACD readings are now negative hourly as well, however, this just confirms that the sell signal issued early yesterday was correct. Look for a flattening of the hourly MACD signal along with bottoming and pivot in stochastic to plan entry right above support in the uptrend. Support break and mid-term(4-hour) stochastic pivot lower will cause for BTC to break new lows – so watch the 6250 area carefully.
BTC is currently a watch.
Futures Traders – Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is currently short.

Ethereum Price Action Is All Anyone Wants To Talk About; Are More Lower Lows Ahead?

Ethereum played out exactly how we projected the PA to perform after tapping into the M1 supply zone. After a quick consolidation in the zone, we had heavy bull volume come flooding in as America woke up to near 200 prices and a little FOMO kicked in. In the charts, however, it was shown in PA. As a previously resistance line turned support as well as increase in volume plus the pull flag that was formed all were clues for continued upside after initial bull break. How far will we run is the real question.
Diving into the m30 charts we notice bearish divergence forming as well as price entering D1 supply zone. These two factors lead me to believe profit taking will be made and a sell-off may ensue. According to wave analysis, we cannot break 224 or else we invalidate this bearish setup and will also most likely break the bear divergence shown here.
Short targets are shown and we can look to long after support is found. Look for H2-H6 STOCH to reset while price sustaining higher lows to keep upward momentum intact.

Trading Crypto: Bitcoin Price Action Can’t Figure Out What To Do With Competing Headlines

Bitcoin remains in a tight trading range between 6200-6400 as overnight trading(US CST) sees little volatility as the 6400 resistance point is firmly rejected once more. This is the second time in the last three days this has occurred – pointing to bearish momentum at the moment. The rejection of the 6400 resistance mark still holds a slightly higher low point with the 6240 area holding as seen on the hourly chart. However, this is drawn down by the fact that the larger scale charts(4-hour/daily) still remain slightly bearish as well. The hourly momentum is more or less sideways as BTC decides whether to hold the 6250 mark that it did on the last downspout, and better yet the major 6k support level.

Rogue* Analysis shows a couple of items that justify this sideways momentum. Stochastic levels on the hourly scale do seem to be seeking oversold(<20) areas once again but maintain the dotted trend line that is slightly inclined. On the other hand, the mid-scale shows stochastic levels now seeking higher levels – an indication that the bears and bulls are now in a tug of war. Pattern to confirm the trend remains flat as without consistency the overall risk remains high. BTC needs either new short-term highs to break 6400 or risk visiting the 6k level once again – a much higher statistic at this point.
BTC is currently a No Play.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The Short-term trend is sideways – No Trade scenario as risk is increased until pattern/trend continuation confirmed.

Trading Crypto: **Weekend Edition: Bitcoin Breaks Down, Drops Below Key Support Level, Bearish Trend Continues

Bitcoin manages to maintain 6400 support by a thread a Friday night(US CST) trading bring little volatility. Price action mid-scale creates a miniature pennant on the mid-scale as shown, and the current momentum shows the struggle for BTC to continue to hold the 6400 support level. A breakout from this pattern will occur in one of two scenarios: Upside at 6550 and downside at 6250.

 

The first will entail BTC seeking retracement from the fallout – which on the daily scale, seems to be continuing lower. The second(downside break) will see BTC looking for the 6250 mark that held off new lows from being achieved in the last downslide. Considering this is the second such test in such a short span of time, this gives more weight to the fact that BTC is set to test new lows.

The upside reach expands to about 6800 which is the next resistance point up and stands as the 1/2 retracement of the previous leg up. Hence, the downside pressure remains high for BTC even if it were to retrace. The retrace leg would have to hold the 6800 level as new support to continue higher. This has remained a pivotal area for BTC, and therefore the downside pressure continues as the current long-term bearish trend makes it statistically difficult to attain this short-term.
The downside would be set to seek the 6k mark if 6250 is sought out in the next 24 hours. The 6k level is also a major support area as well and provides a solid base for BTC at the moment. This level being broken has three major targets.
1) Short term 5800
2) Mid Term 5200
3) Long Term 4400
Note that for BTC to achieve these targets, the major supports at the moment must be retested. Hence, the pennant pattern mid-term(as shown) breakdown will likely lead to the fallout that will test major levels.
BTC is currently a No Play.

Bitcoin Technicals: Key Support Levels Keep Snapping Like Twigs

Bitcoin continues downward as US(CST) overnight trading fails to attain even the slightest actual retracement. Price action hit a high of about 6550 after bottoming and testing the 6400 support area in yesterday’s trading. However, this has now been compromised as a support level; current trading activity sees this readying to break as 6400 will now be a resistance point. The next support level down will be the major 6k level firm. This will also be a pivotal role for BTC; the 6k mark being held firm will supply BTC bulls with a higher low than the previous fallout. This will be needed in some way or form to turn the overall downtrend into a bull run as 2018 has sustained a predictable downward pattern.

Rogue* Wave Analysis correctly gave a sell order near the 7400 mark for those that follow, and now sees the fallout of BTC continue as key levels are snapped like twigs. There is another major point – 6250 – which will find some support as this is the last major stopping point for BTC. Otherwise – keep shorts in mind as the fallout looks to continue.
Stochastic levels are in extreme oversold(<20) conditions. This should be a warning of volatility to come. Many major price moves have occurred mostly in these areas – which BTC now sits in on the hourly, mid-term (4 hour), and soon to be the daily scales.
MACD momentum in bearish and gives a strong sell.
Pivot play risk is high – No sign of a bottom or support at the moment.
BTC is currently a No Play.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short: lower highs and lower lows across the board.

The Problem With Ethereum; Technicals Show Potential Capitulation On The Horizon

Patience is a virtue in the game of trading and this month-long sideways price action for Ethereum tested every ounce of my patience. If you held true to the charts and stayed patient you should be sitting happy as ETH broke for a whopping 25% drop from 286 down to 211 just missing our first target by mere dollars(108). The question is though, is she done?

With that lets dive into the H4 chart to see if we can gain any clues to what lies ahead of us. Upon a wave analysis, it seems we are making a small bear pennant in the micro trends which is common for the position PA is at. This calls for a continuation of the previous trend as pennants are continuation patterns as well as being in a w4 of an impulsive structure down. We are pretty oversold in many time frames minus the time frames below H2. Taking all this data into account you will notice ETH and BTC both creating hidden bearish divergence as the price is flat and RSI and STOCH begin to run north signaling exhaustion.
Overall we see a bearish continuation for the time being with a potential to flip bullishly if we can sustain the 200 zone after we break through it. It will take a lot to do this but it is a possibility.
Day traders and scalpers alike could look to enter shorts in this zone as we notice micro bearishness, look to close out all positions at the arrival of our targets.
Swing traders who are in from 280+ may also consider closing the majority of their positions and look to re-enter upon confirmation of zones not holding. Some traders may wish to long this as we should create H1 bullish DIV and an extremely oversold H4-H6 STOCH/RSI.
With BTC at the edge of the cliff we must ask ourselves, when will the well run dry? When will buyers not come stepping in, as this will be our 5th touch in this zone? If BTC breaks its 5.8-6k support it may trigger capitulation across the market. Be ready, be protected, and always have a backup plan.

BREAKING BAD: Bitcoin Dumps And Breaks Through Each Support Price Point We Predicted

The fallout of Bitcoin over the last 24 hours is crystal clear. Peaking in the 7400 range, the Rogue* Wave Analysis called for a sell almost perfectly near the top as the struggle began to present itself. This came from the 3-wave pattern which included seeking the target area of 7400 to be completed.

 

Yesterday’s price action along with overnight (US CST) trading saw the breakdown of several key levels. 7200, 6800, and most recently, 6400 support have all broken with BTC continuing down to seek a low of 6302. In the span of 3 candles, as shown on the mid-scale chart, BTC gave a double test at this low with a second candle hitting 6303. The previous long-term low at 5858 has still not been challenged from the previous fallout, however, this also remains a higher low overall.

BTC continues to struggle as it trades right at resistance, which is technically 6400 at the moment. Stochastic levels remain in the oversold (<20) region and continue to bring volatility to price action. This is in conjunction with the continued steep dive in MACD levels that remain negative as well – although attempting to even out with the current candle.
Two options remain for BTC participants.
Short-Term entries are possible at this time, although the risk remains high as this is a pivot play. Entry at 6400 should allow for 2.5%-3 on BTC Net Gains. Altcoin strategies may pay out much higher returns at this risk level as something to consider as an alternative.
Mid-Long Term Entries are a No Play for BTC at this time.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is sideways(15-minute scale) with high volatility risk in either direction. No Play.

Trading Crypto: **Wednesday Afternoon: Bitcoin Breaks 7,200 Support, Could Seek 6,800

Bitcoin US (CST) overnight trading sees the topping process discussed for the last week come to life. Daily candle closes have topped near the 7400 mark, exactly where Rogue* Wave Analysis projected BTC price action to pivot at a minimum for retracement. Now trading at 7000, BTC struggles to maintain support as 7200 has broken and 6800 is in sight next. The downward momentum is now shown on the daily scale as the retrace calculation can now be shown to continue the uptrend.

Rogue* Wave Analysis shows two retracement points. The first lines up with a 1/3 retrace of the previous leg up at 6960. The second will be lower but will maintain 1/2 of the previous leg up at 6760. This will allow for rule based entry that show statistical odds of the continuation of BTC upward to seek the long term upper trend line which now stands at roughly 7460. This line is the dotted line – sloped. Keep in mind a break below the 1/2 retrace point at 6760 will likely continue to bring more consolidation and increase the risk of new low being made for the long term trend.
Stochastic levels now leave overbought(>80) levels and seeks the lower region of the scale. Price action will follow.
MACD is now ticking negatively and may look to cross daily.
These statistics stand for the 4-hour mid term chart as well.
BTC is currently a No Play. Needs support and higher low* on larger timeframes.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short term trend is currently short.