Bitcoin Technicals: Everybody Is Searching For Answers On Its Next Move

Bitcoin continues to challenge the 6800 resistance area as the last 24 hours worth of trading have kept price levels hovering in this zone. As BTC continues to fight this level, the mid-scale and daily chart continues to show the short-term long pattern that has created the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed. The continuation of the long pattern seeks the ultimate destination at the 7200 mark(which also happens to be the next resistance point beyond 6800). This marks the major pivot area for BTC, and at the least should see a retracement, if not before this level.

As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, support and resistance levels stand firm @ 6400/6800/7200 and 7600. However, a new piece of data has emerged with the Rogue* Wave System. Today sees the upside break target of the long-term trend changed. This means bear territory can be flipped into a possible bull market at the break of 7600 resistance. The question is if BTC has found its bottom, which is still market near the 5k region.
Stochastic levels continue to be in overbought(>80) zones on the mid-scale, with daily giving a pivot in lower levels. This is good for bullish momentum.
MACD shows positive momentum on every scale so far with hourly attempting to close across to the upside with lower price movement. Hence, a slow crossing once again.
BTC is currently a hold for participants, but a watch for those not in the market. Looking for a pullback on the short to mid-scale for support entry.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long. Be cautious of a pullback to re-test short-term supports

Ethereum Technicals Foreshadow Another Leg Up, But Could It Be Fool’s Gold?

Ethereum sustained its uptrend and now is resting on an important pivot. My previous notes suggested we may be in a larger ABC. If this is true then we can expect one more move up before an ultimate crash down. In order to sustain a possible leg up, we must sustain H4 pivot of 450-454. Watch for the H4 STOCH to come down to reset while price sustains H4 Pivot. Dropping down to H4 pivot will lower our topside for this next possible leg up to about swing high or slightly above. If price manages to not break Swing High we will have BEAR divergence confirmation on the D1 chart.

 

If price manages to sustain D1 pivot this will open up an upper target and we will not form bear divergence on the D1 charts.
Short term traders and scalpers can see a possible short scenario to the H4 pivot. We have formed BEAR divergences on all Small time frames which suggest a pullback. You could set your stop loss at H4 swing high of 475-480. For MED term swing traders look for support to hold at H4 pivot in order to long.
Breach of the H4 pivot immediately breaches our long calls. Remember to always use stop loss and practice good risk management.

Bitcoin Technicals Break Out!! Push Through 6,400 Resistance

Bitcoin travels beyond the breakpoint to the upside after a long bout down as it breaks the 6400 resistance level us US (CST) overnight trading. This has been a challenge for the last several days that saw BTC hold the 6k level solid, and for those of you following, should have been the watch indication to see how well the break occurs. The break overnight now puts BTC at the 6640 price point with resistance next at the 6800 level. Support and Resistance stand firm at 6k/6400/6800.

The wave pattern shows a slight break of more than 1/2 the previous leg up on the last leg down*, however, this does show a general outlay of what looks to be an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern as displayed on the daily scale. If this pattern holds true, the overall target should end at the 7200 resistance mark as a major pivot. The statistical odds of this are unfortunately brought down by the lower second shoulder, but does not cancel out this pattern for the time being as 6400 support currently holds.
Stochastic readings show increased buying power as a pattern is also long and the trend right now is the same. The overbought levels (>80) do indicate a sign of topping, but this is also a highly volatile zone for BTC price movement, especially after major support or resistance breaks.
MACD momentum now begins to tick positively as the recent continuation of upside movement shows the attempt by BTC price action to hold higher levels. Price looks to meet the MA(moving average line) as well around 6600 so far, so keep an eye for a retracement of sorts.
BTC is currently a watch with retracement on the hourly scale set for entry on lower stochastic levels.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is confirmed long.

Trading Crypto: **Sunday Evening: In A Stagnant/Bear Market Traders May Have To Resort To A Tight ‘Scalping’ Strategy

Bitcoin followed the Rogue path once again with a retracement or continuance in the uptrend as it certifies its recent hold on 6k support. As BTC now seeks the 6400 resistance mark, there are a few things to consider. BTC hasn’t quite given the best scenario for a pivot so far – and going into a new week, there isn’t the base that was quite expected. What exactly does this mean? Frankly, a 6k support that was more firm or at the least another 6400 resistance test by now would have been a better situation. The market, however, rarely ever conforms perfectly. So that leaves BTC with the next best option for reaching new heights: hoping that the recent pivot hold will continue even with the overall downtrend still intact and more than 1/2 of the previous leg up being taken back. Statistically, this will be a difficult feat.

Rogue* Analysis has shown a high risk entry at 6200 to be solid so far with over 150 points on the table, but this is a short-term high risk gain. This should not be in the allocation for those with little understanding of market movement nor the proper risk tolerance.
Thus far, this leg does qualify as a higher low on the daily scale, and short-mid scale needs followthrough with higher highs and higher lows to confirm the trend long. Long-term breakout from bear market trajectory remains at roughly 8k – quite a distance away. Therefore, BTC short-term gains are the only strategically relevant entries. Keep in mind the risk at this time is also High* considering the trend, recent lows, and the fact that pivot plays are the likely entries to maximize profits which are small in comparison to historical data so far.
BTC is currently a No Play until pattern confirms long entry risk reduction.

Trading Crypto: **Saturday: Opportunities Available For Short-Term Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has continued to hold the 6k major support area as it seeks to create a higher low for the bulls. The only area of concern as far as Rogue* Wave pattern shows is that price has already taken back more than 1/2 of the previous leg up – giving way for a greater possibility of the overall downtrend to continue longer-term. Still, with a tight range and ultra-low volatility once again, BTC continues to give a reason for bulls to make short-term longs; there is opportunity currently at bay.

A long for larger players would consist of entry @ 6200 with a watch on the upside target for 6400. This is the next optimal trade available, though categorized as Risk: High.
The total picture still consists of the downtrend intact with lower highs and lower lows as seen in the mid and long-term charts. Additionally, the hourly and 4-hour scale have begun to show signs of creating a bearish-pennant pattern that looks to have a downside break at around 6175.
For the weekend, taking a look at the tech specs shows stochastic levels attempting to seek higher levels with a bit of struggle. This will allow high-risk short gains, but not likely to much of a trade beyond 250 points as the stats show longs against the trend at this time.
MACD levels are positive with a recent cross to the upside as shown here on the 4-hour scale, a good sign for BTC at the moment as well. Safe plays for upside breakout on a pennant reversal with MACD considering should be watched around the 6400 area(resistance)
BTC is currently a No Play – watch for support to either be sought out over the next 24 hours with pennant break down.

Bitcoin Holds Support At 6,000, But Technicals Look And Feel Sluggish

Bitcoin has continued to trend down with the slowdown of the fallout apparent in the last twenty-four hours or so. As BTC broke bounds by snapping the 6400 support area, it also managed to maintain the longer-term major support area at 6k flat. This was also shown yesterday on the same daily scale as there was previously a pivot at around 6300. However, this hasn’t quite been the case on the daily close* level. The previous candle close on this scale was 6249, a mere 51 points away from the 6300 level. As close as this was, this shows a sign of BTC attempting to hold that pivot zone and thus far it maintains a close distance with current price trading at about 6259 – matched with ultra-low volatility for the day.

Rogue* Wave Analysis shows that the continuation of the downtrend is still in effect on the daily scale, however, the mid-scale 4-hour chart shows an attempt at this time for BTC to retrace at least some of the losses. This indicates an attempt to hold the major 6k support level as well. This is also coupled with the fact that price is set to meet the MA(moving average) line on the mid-scale. With the trend still down, there needs to be a high followed by a higher low* in order to bring down risk and factor in a possible entry.
Stochastic levels daily show a bottoming attempt as oversold(<20) levels are sought out. Matched with a 6k support hold, this would optimally be a solid daily pivot level.
MACD momentum is still negative with a cross in sight and brings continued awareness that BTC still seeks additional lows. Look for a pivot with the higher low to confirm any entrance to the market.
BTC is currently a No Play.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently short with low volatility. Use the 5-15 minute candle scales to base decisions.

Ethereum Remains A Technical Mystery; ‘Chop’ Makes For Difficult Setup

Ethereum experienced a lot of chop these past two days in trading and our call yesterday to short the bounce has not yielded the desired results/targets. We are still very much in chop territory so entering into any position before a break of upside or downside can be seen as extremely risky. The question now is was that all downside ETH had to give.

Before we dive into the H1 chart I want to make note of the H4 STOCH pivoting right in the center of the graph which could spell trouble for both sides if on the wrong side. So now lets dive into the H1 chart and make note of certain things. First thing I see is we have lost a crucial support but we still hold the swing low.
H1 STOCH is bottomed out but we know that does not mean much as we can run sideways for some time. In order to ensure the bear case, we must let STOCH ride up but let price stay below STOP. If we get that I am one to say we need one more push down to break this low and find better support at 420. So with this set up we will look to SHORT the bounce (risky because it will be within the chop) and look to close at around 420.
The bullish case is that we may have formed a sort of a double bottom bull divergence if you will accept that as a double bottom. I am one to say it is not but it is something to be extremely aware of if going short. If it does turn out to be a BULL div then look for a 3 wave pattern into the opposite direction and look to short near the top.

STOPPED OUT! Bitcoin Bounces Below 6,400 Resistance Level, Seeks Fresh Lows

Bitcoin struggles once again as the fallout continues with today’s trading stopping out many. With BTC now trading at about 6185, there is no denying that the 6400 mark is not going to hold as support any time soon. The struggle of BTC to maintain that levels came and went, and now BTC’s primary objective is to hold 6k flat as support. This will also be quite difficult as BTC’s downward projected path has been laid out by Rogue* Calculation not only for weeks now but months ago. The 5800 target level was solidified as a long-term trend target. The long-term bottom trend line additionally stands at about 5500 is price continues beyond the 5800 mark.

Realistically, there is also the possibility (as shown in the daily chart) that BTC could maintain price for a pivot. This would mean BTC holding 6300, which is the price point the last major pivot occurred within the oval trend. This would create an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern of sorts. However, the possibility of this rests on today’s close being above this level. This brings the probability to low levels. What is next for BTC is far more important in terms of support.
Support and Resistance Levels stand at 6k/5600/5200/4800. This is why yesterday’s analysis spoke about the long-term possibility of 4750, a shy away from 4800. This calculation would also see the long-term trend continuing in a quick fashion.
Stochastic readings continue to falter as they seek oversold(<20) levels daily.
MACD shows negative momentum with a cross at bay.
BTC is currently a No Play – Needs support to slow sell-off.
Futures Traders-trade the trend. The short-term trend is short.

Ethereum Technical Weakness Continues; Short Trade Seems To Be The Only Play

Ethereum has been trending down in the last 24 hours and I called for a short set up near 450 but as we can see, we still have not met that. I assumed we would touch our zone before H1 BULL DIV formed but looks like BULLS needed extra help. The wave 5 target was also not met as we did not reach 414 but all is well if you sat on your hands and did not enter.

 

Now we must find out what does ETH want to tell us today.

 

Diving into the H1 charts we notice some things have given a clearer picture and overall very good set up if my TA is correct. We have finished a 5 wave move own as we had confirmation of trend reversal given H1 BULL that formed overnight.
Now we are looking for a 3 wave move into the opposite direction that will then be accompanied by another 5 or 3 wave move down. So for this set up, I want to go short near the .5 retrace of the previous downward move. In order for our entries to be met ETH must sustain H1 support while letting H1 STOCH pivot.
I have specific targets shown for points where I think we can make an immediate turn, you can see a ladder tech used in the red zone. Targets are also staying the same for the SHORT term. A stop is the same as I think a close of that zone will trigger some people to flip positions.
Remember to always practice good risk management and not every trade is the trade.

Bitcoin Technicals Desperately Search For Support, Next Level Down Could Touch 6,000

Bitcoin has made no progress in its path to seek out 6400 resistance once again to create support. As BTC currently trades in the mid 6300 range, there has been virtually no change with extremely low volatility in the last day. This is highly unusual once again after such a big drop, and as the hourly chart seems to show, there is an attempt to now retrace some of the losses. The focus, however, should be shifted a bit to the longer-term as we are now able to see some crucial points in price action.

Looking at the daily chart(shown), BTC is clear in its overall path and downtrend continuation at the moment. This exact chart was presented over two months ago as BTC retraced to the upside over the long term. Now looking at the same chart with no alterations, it can be seen that BTC maintains exact momentum as it now struggles to break the 6800 line on that longer-term scale.
After BTC challenged this area twice as support with the last time in early April, the downside break of the 6800 line led to it being used as hard resistance. The last time BTC challenged it as resistance was mid-June, then just a few days ago. Both instances showed a hard bounce, and it seems that BTC is now struggling to maintain the 6400 area. This makes things all the more interesting, as 6k has been the total downside target for months now as shown, and if a break occurs below that 6k area, the second target below at 4750 could occur. Additionally, looking at the pattern, the 6800 challenge here recently would likely be seen as a minor double-top hitting resistance.
Stochastic readings daily are also taking a dive to seek lower levels in the oversold region(<20) once again.
MACD shows a slowing in positive momentum, so watch carefully.
BTC needs support desperately, next level down at 6k flat.
BTC is currently a no play.
Futures Traders- Trade the Trend. The short-term trend is down, however price action has been sideways with low volatility for over 24 hours. No trade – until trend continuation or reversal short-term is confirmed(breakout) to lower risk.