Taking a look into overnight trading, a quick bit on where Bitcoin (BTC) has found itself is important after yesterdays breakdown.
As I said, the bounce off of the 8,400 mark would surely prove an 8k level hold, and it did. So far.
Note: The entry I recommended last night @BTC8625 would have yielded 400-500pts, within the 400-800pt upside guideline.
The next level up to test would be the 9,200 mark, which it is currently (as of 6am CST) doing.
If BTC can best this level, again, and hold 9,200 as support…the road ahead will look good.
BTC is currently a WATCH for a pullback to test 8,600, where I find a support/pivot level over the next few hours. Update to come…
Today brought us one of the most volatile days in crypto history. The wrong way of course, before it went right. Many investors panic as usual, and then turn to the media to gain what them deem to be “actionable intelligence.” This rarely works in most cases.
Looking back at stock market cycles, we generally see the panic that begins to snowball it’s way into a full blown fallout. 1929, for example, brought many to their knees, then saw them selling physical assets for pennies on the dollar. Of course, the good thing back then was that the news had very little effect on the physics of the market considering it was at least a day old, if not more. It will generally also locally scouted news, so it was probably so generalized that it didn’t matter at that point.
What did matter was the way millions of people lost everything they owned. Literally. Most speculators always sell at the bottom. The concept seems simple to avoid, but lets fastforward from the dusty black and white era that birthed the modern day market and look at what’s happened more recently.
In 2008, we all saw the start of the mortgage crises. Like a wedding, we saw the beginning at cocktail hour. Swarms coming into the market as they had. The market ran up, we all had a laugh, a dance, and then there it was….the “I just lost my house” moment.” Aha. Here come the waterworks. Time to sell the Mercedes for a few thousand bucks.
The crazy thing is: did anyone go back and think about what the news told us?
Let’s revisit this question in another light to get to the main event: the LOLS. How could we be laughing, and out loud of all things?
The new era, with no long term historical data, has been the coin market. With the emergence of high returns, every ones getting rich on a daily basis…..and the laughter only begins.
Volatility at any point of history brings the wedding bells back to light.
Let’s break it down.
We’ve all been riding the coin market. Bitcoin, altcoins, whatever. The party gets crazy. Then, like a swift kick, volatility ensues. People panic, they sell off, and here comes the swing back up. So we’ve had joy, weve cried, and we’ve continued on.
Here’s the kicker: what about what the news told us all to do? Did we Listen?
You’re damn right. Every single one of us, and it did us all no favors. Why?
While we were all on the buy and HODL scene, news and media have us no indication of what was going on (except the ICO Journal, of course) and allowed us to dance our way into the freefall. But if we replay the wedding tapes, we find the LOLS. They were everywhere, at every moment of the event. News follows the action, and now we can all see the proof. And it’s still here.
Let’s take today’s mess, keeping in mind this comes from half a day of choppy seas. Good ol’ “Black Friday” of 2018 at the crypto market.
CNBC’s Fast Money (although we dearly love all our favorite guys and gals at CNBC*) had a segment on how to buy Ripple (XRP) at $2.50…..and followed it up later on in the day on how to SELL Ripple at 74 cents. Seriously?
After laughing out loud for so long, it seems that we all need to do a better job at finding “actionable intelligence.”
It might mean we don’t have to give all our luxury goods away to the lowest bidder.
Pop goes the weasel.
US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, has called on the G20 to begin discussion around cryptocurrency regulations and ‘normalcy’. All leading towards, in our estimation, mainstream adoption on trading desks at places like Goldman Sachs (his former employer), JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and others.
Speaking at the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Mnuchin said that he does not believe cryptocurrencies are “a threat” to the financial market stability, though he is concerned about its use in money laundering and other illegal activities, NHK reports.
If held, the talks notably wouldn’t mark the first time that a major global summit saw such dialogue, with a meeting of the G7 nations, a group comprised of the world’s largest economies, having discussed the matter as far back as 2015.
This time around, however, Mnuchin is not alone in seeking the dialogue, as French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire put out a similar call in December for such talks to coincide with the meeting. At the time, he cited the risk of market speculation as a top concern.
Still, Mnuchin’s plan comes weeks after he stated that U.S. finance regulators are forming a digital currency working group, one that would aim to investigate the nascent market.
“We are very focused on cryptocurrencies,” he stated, adding that it is the job of regulators to ensure it is not misused or abused.
The treasury is also holding a hearing on virtual currencies and the role of U.S Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on 6th February, 2018. This “open sessaion” will be witnessed by Jay Clayton, chairman of the U.S. SEC, and J. Christopher Giancarlo, chairman of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Bitcoin took a beating overnight, but has picked itself up off the mat and rebounded better than 1,300 points since about 730AM.
So if you are scoring at home (and if you are actually ‘scoring’ this morning – kudos to you!) and had the ‘cajones’ to jump in at peak freakout this AM you could have caught a near 20% uptick. A good days work, if you can get it.
Therein lies the unending interest in the crypto world. Volatility in all its glory. It is the sole reason that global banks continue to give serious thought to adding Bitcoin and other mainstream coins to their trading desks.
Volatility breeds profits. Just ask the hordes waiting to begin trading cryptos on Robinhood. You think JPMorgan or Bank of America/Merrill Lynch wouldn’t love another couple million customers they didn’t have three months ago? Of course they would.
So long live the volatility in cryptos and find the right trading guru to play the ups and downs.
Paging our own ROGUE TRADER!
For those of you that have been followong, last night’s numbers didn’t lie….we are currently dealing with watching bitcoin (BTC) bounce off of 7,500.
Let’s get right down to the tech speks:
BTC has smashed through 10k and also 9k. If 8,400 did not hold, I gave you strong indication, if not direct last night that the next level down is 7k.
Again, we’re at about 7,500, and the day just started.
As panic ensues, the sell off continues. Heavy volume and an overload of young market participants are adding to a relatively unknown territory.
That is, unless you’re ONLY watching technicals.
BTc 7k, enough said.
Wait for BTC to see a bounce at 7k, but a break would mean it’s headed for my original low, 5k.
I’ve had an inquiry about what to do if you own BTC. You shouldn’t have owned it past 9k, but at this point you definitely shouldn’t own it. SELL BTC if you own and wait.
Keep in mind, pattern and trend is down. Considering BTC is a long trade only, BTC is a NO PLAY. WATCH for any type of support to be built first. There is none at the moment.
When you wake up this morning you are going to hear and see all sorts of commentary regarding the crypto bubble bursting. Bitcoin and its younger siblings have been taken to the woodshed and there is blood in the streets.
Of course, that is only if you bought at the relative top in the last few months. If you bought a year ago…well, you are still feeling pretty good about your fake internet money. Lol!!
The reality is this: Take a quick look at history. Pull up a Priceline chart from 1999 to 2002 and figure it out for yourself. A new and emerging industry is going to deal with severe volatility and massive moves up and down the ‘pain chain’.
Those who stay the course, diversify within blockchain and crypto will end up with the next Amazon or Google.
Hang in there today. And if you’ve got the balls, buy some more and HODL.
**Literally as we are typing this Bitcoin bounced up 500 points off the lows back above 8,000. LOL so HODL.
Big day for the crypto market in general.
Bitcoin hit the 8,400 mark only to bounce back close to 9,400.
Unfortunately, this fairy tale is far from over.
The rebound was short lived. BTC is currently below the 9,000, which just made 9,000 the new ceiling for the evening. Bad if you’re still holding; but there is more bad news.
Currently, momentum is shifting further downward with volatility picking up into the evening. An 8,400 test is possible, so watch is in effect. If a break upward is to occur, we want to see 9,000 hold.
Again, in regards to the downside, if BTC breaks 8,400, looks like the 7,000 level could be reached. Rough road ahead. Risk level is HIGH.
BTC is currently in WAIT/WATCH and look for support to be build.