Bitcoin Technicals: Everybody Is Searching For Answers On Its Next Move

Bitcoin continues to challenge the 6800 resistance area as the last 24 hours worth of trading have kept price levels hovering in this zone. As BTC continues to fight this level, the mid-scale and daily chart continues to show the short-term long pattern that has created the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed. The continuation of the long pattern seeks the ultimate destination at the 7200 mark(which also happens to be the next resistance point beyond 6800). This marks the major pivot area for BTC, and at the least should see a retracement, if not before this level.

As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, support and resistance levels stand firm @ 6400/6800/7200 and 7600. However, a new piece of data has emerged with the Rogue* Wave System. Today sees the upside break target of the long-term trend changed. This means bear territory can be flipped into a possible bull market at the break of 7600 resistance. The question is if BTC has found its bottom, which is still market near the 5k region.
Stochastic levels continue to be in overbought(>80) zones on the mid-scale, with daily giving a pivot in lower levels. This is good for bullish momentum.
MACD shows positive momentum on every scale so far with hourly attempting to close across to the upside with lower price movement. Hence, a slow crossing once again.
BTC is currently a hold for participants, but a watch for those not in the market. Looking for a pullback on the short to mid-scale for support entry.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is currently long. Be cautious of a pullback to re-test short-term supports

Really?! It Looks Like Justin Sun Has Been Buying Twitter Likes And Retweets

This is weird. And it also looks legit. In several screenshots sent to us by a plethora of Twitter users, the numbers connected to retweets and likes on Justin Sun’s Twitter account show a clear pattern.

If you know anything about purchasing followers on twitter (a big no-no amongst the crypto Illuminati), then you probably also know that you can purchase engagement stats as well. The same companies that will sell you followers (bots and fake accounts) will do the same for your engagement stats for any tweet you’d like.

Now, if you’d like to somewhat mask this tactic and paid for engagement you have to purchase both likes and retweets. And if you do this consistently you are probably going to get away with it. But if you choose to only buy one or the other, the engagement stats will schew heavily one way or the other and you’ll get caught.

Especially if you are a famous account connected to a top 25 market cap cryptocurrency. Enter Justin Sun’s twitter account and the following screenshots:

Let’s take a step back for a moment. Is it possible that some sort of magical hacker got into Justin Sun’s personal twitter account and purchased only retweets to make him look bad? Yes, that is a possibility. But an enormous long shot that we find incredibly improbable.

Take a look at previous tweets with ‘balanced’ engagement. Spotting a trend here? See below:

We’ve lauded the marketing abilities and leadership of Justin Sun on these pages. We’ve even been accused on ‘pump and dump’ activities based on the ‘irrational exuberance’ of some of our articles. Justin and his team do a phenomenal job of staying in the news and making weekly announcements attached to $TRX.

But this one looks and feels like a bit of a black eye. Several days ago each tweet received nearly identical engagement stats. Now, the retweets significantly outweigh the likes. If you know anything about Twitter,  that isn’t how organic engagement works out.

Decide for yourself, but this one just doesn’t smell right.

Ethereum Technicals Foreshadow Another Leg Up, But Could It Be Fool’s Gold?

Ethereum sustained its uptrend and now is resting on an important pivot. My previous notes suggested we may be in a larger ABC. If this is true then we can expect one more move up before an ultimate crash down. In order to sustain a possible leg up, we must sustain H4 pivot of 450-454. Watch for the H4 STOCH to come down to reset while price sustains H4 Pivot. Dropping down to H4 pivot will lower our topside for this next possible leg up to about swing high or slightly above. If price manages to not break Swing High we will have BEAR divergence confirmation on the D1 chart.

 

If price manages to sustain D1 pivot this will open up an upper target and we will not form bear divergence on the D1 charts.
Short term traders and scalpers can see a possible short scenario to the H4 pivot. We have formed BEAR divergences on all Small time frames which suggest a pullback. You could set your stop loss at H4 swing high of 475-480. For MED term swing traders look for support to hold at H4 pivot in order to long.
Breach of the H4 pivot immediately breaches our long calls. Remember to always use stop loss and practice good risk management.

BLOOMBERG: Coinbase Gets SEC Approval On ‘Broker-Dealer’ Acquisitions; Can List Tokens Dubbed Securities

This news is just as important as the BlackRock info from this AM. Coinbase will use these acquisitions to greatly expand its offerings to current and future clients. The positioning that these approvals provide them could equal structured products (think crypto ETF’s once those are approved) in every possible denomination.

As per Bloomberg about 90 minutes ago:

“Coinbase Inc., one of the most popular cryptocurrency platforms, said it got the green light from U.S. watchdogs to move forward with a trio of acquisitions that will allow it to become one of the first federally regulated venues for trading digital coins deemed to be securities.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority approved Coinbase’s purchase of Keystone Capital Corp., Venovate Marketplace Inc., and Digital Wealth LLC, a company spokesman said Monday. The acquisitions enable the firm to offer so-called security tokens and also place the businesses under federal oversight. Coinbase has primarily been regulated by a patchwork of state authorities.”

From a competitive and strategic standpoint, this gives Coinbase the ability to begin outrunning most of its competitors. The majority of exchanges within and outside of the US have yet to make a push into the broker-dealer space for fear or regulatory scrutiny. This designation puts Coinbase squarely into the rarified air of Gemini and Circle, as more legitimate financial institutions. Both of those firms have also applied for ‘broker-dealer’ designations and licensing.

More from Bloomberg:

“Regulated trading platforms could eventually handle billions of dollars in tokens sold by companies in initial coin offerings. Despite a crackdown by the U.S., China, and other countries, companies have already raised more than $12 billion through ICOs in 2018, more than triple what they did all of last year, according to market tracker CoinSchedule. The SEC has said most of the coins are securities, which means issuers must register and comply with federal laws — as do platforms that handle trading.”

And a bit more regarding the announcement of new coin listings connected to this decision:

“Coinbase said Friday that it’s looking into letting users trade five new digital coins — Cardano, Basic Attention Token, Stellar, Zcash, and Ox — but can’t guarantee it will list the tokens. If it does add the assets, the move would signal a turning point for Coinbase, which currently only lets customers trade Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ether, and Litecoin. The announcement doesn’t mean the firm has determined that the five coins aren’t securities, Coinbase said, noting that some of the assets may only be available in certain countries for legal reasons.”

These moves collected together spell out a clear and concise competitive strategy for Coinbase. Along with their Coinbase Pro initiatives, they are making moves during a bear market that could manifest in new and highly profitable ways when the crypto markets turn.

Bitcoin Technicals Break Out!! Push Through 6,400 Resistance

Bitcoin travels beyond the breakpoint to the upside after a long bout down as it breaks the 6400 resistance level us US (CST) overnight trading. This has been a challenge for the last several days that saw BTC hold the 6k level solid, and for those of you following, should have been the watch indication to see how well the break occurs. The break overnight now puts BTC at the 6640 price point with resistance next at the 6800 level. Support and Resistance stand firm at 6k/6400/6800.

The wave pattern shows a slight break of more than 1/2 the previous leg up on the last leg down*, however, this does show a general outlay of what looks to be an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern as displayed on the daily scale. If this pattern holds true, the overall target should end at the 7200 resistance mark as a major pivot. The statistical odds of this are unfortunately brought down by the lower second shoulder, but does not cancel out this pattern for the time being as 6400 support currently holds.
Stochastic readings show increased buying power as a pattern is also long and the trend right now is the same. The overbought levels (>80) do indicate a sign of topping, but this is also a highly volatile zone for BTC price movement, especially after major support or resistance breaks.
MACD momentum now begins to tick positively as the recent continuation of upside movement shows the attempt by BTC price action to hold higher levels. Price looks to meet the MA(moving average line) as well around 6600 so far, so keep an eye for a retracement of sorts.
BTC is currently a watch with retracement on the hourly scale set for entry on lower stochastic levels.
Futures Traders- trade the trend. The short-term trend is confirmed long.

BLACKROCK: ‘We’ve created a crypto team to evaluate opportunities in crypto futures and other crypto assets…”

If you haven’t been paying attention to the institutional interest in cryptos you have been asleep over the past two months. Institutional (read: the biggest players in finance) money has been pouring resources into crypto research as well as client assets on a case by case basis. Even though this movement is careful and measured, it has clearly put a floor under the bear market.

Zerohedge perfectly summarized what has been taking place within institutional circles:

“Following news last week that billionaire investor Steven Cohen was said to have put money into a hedge fund focusing on crypto, Bitcoin et al. are extending gains today following headlines that BlackRock has formed a team to look into ways to take advantage of the cryptocurrency market and blockchain.

In the last week, we have seen the owner of Switzerland’s securities exchange in Zurich say it’s creating a platform for trading digital assets.

Then, according to Fortune, none other than billionaire Steve Cohen has decided to join the bitcoin party and has invested in Autonomous Partners, a relatively new hedge fund that is acquiring both cryptocurrencies and blockchain-related companies.

And now, as Financial News reports, the world’s largest asset manager will examine whether the manager of $6.3 trillion of assets should invest in Bitcoin futures.  It is also reportedly reviewing what competitors are doing with cryptocurrencies and how it would affect its business.

Notably, the formation of the team marks a change for the company after CEO Larry Fink said in October cryptocurrencies are a speculative platform in Asia and heavily used for money laundering. He has also said Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were “far from” being an opportunity for institutional investors, and none of BlackRock’s clients wanted to invest in it, according to Financial News.

And all of this comes after JPMorgan, Fidelity, and CME among others have stepped into the crypto mix. Bitcoin has spiked back above $6500, back at one-week highs…”

Look at all of the names above. The biggest financial institutions in the world, the largest asset manager on the planet, and several hedge fund titans who have rarely been wrong about when and where to ‘mark to market’ in any industry.

At this point, if a portion of your portfolio isn’t allocated to cryptos you are in the midst of missing an opportunity much like the birth of the internet or the personal computer in the late 70’s. Those two ’emerging technologies’ turned out pretty well.

It looks like some of the smartest minds in finance have come to their senses concerning cryptos. Find an entry point and BTFD!

Trading Crypto: **Sunday Evening: In A Stagnant/Bear Market Traders May Have To Resort To A Tight ‘Scalping’ Strategy

Bitcoin followed the Rogue path once again with a retracement or continuance in the uptrend as it certifies its recent hold on 6k support. As BTC now seeks the 6400 resistance mark, there are a few things to consider. BTC hasn’t quite given the best scenario for a pivot so far – and going into a new week, there isn’t the base that was quite expected. What exactly does this mean? Frankly, a 6k support that was more firm or at the least another 6400 resistance test by now would have been a better situation. The market, however, rarely ever conforms perfectly. So that leaves BTC with the next best option for reaching new heights: hoping that the recent pivot hold will continue even with the overall downtrend still intact and more than 1/2 of the previous leg up being taken back. Statistically, this will be a difficult feat.

Rogue* Analysis has shown a high risk entry at 6200 to be solid so far with over 150 points on the table, but this is a short-term high risk gain. This should not be in the allocation for those with little understanding of market movement nor the proper risk tolerance.
Thus far, this leg does qualify as a higher low on the daily scale, and short-mid scale needs followthrough with higher highs and higher lows to confirm the trend long. Long-term breakout from bear market trajectory remains at roughly 8k – quite a distance away. Therefore, BTC short-term gains are the only strategically relevant entries. Keep in mind the risk at this time is also High* considering the trend, recent lows, and the fact that pivot plays are the likely entries to maximize profits which are small in comparison to historical data so far.
BTC is currently a No Play until pattern confirms long entry risk reduction.

Crypto ‘Salt and Shade’ Is Everywhere Right Now; Nobody Is Exempt

The crypto bear market continues to take its toll on the dialogue and mindset of even those at the top. The sniping, shade, salt, and ‘subtweets’ of some of the most well-known leaders and brands in crypto are at all time levels. Seven months of sliding prices has just about everyone exhausted.

Just this past week several brands and crypto ambassadors felt the need to trash rivals or other projects just because the vibe within crypto will allow it. We’ve put together some of the ‘salt and shade’ that has occurred over the past couple weeks to show you exactly what we are seeing and feeling out there.

Reubin Yap, COO of ZCoin, took several shots at Monero based on his perception of their privacy claims: “The first kind of “cryptographic matter” was Monero which, in Reubin’s opinion, was “horrible to use”. Additionally, he says that Monero did not have a GIO [General Purpose Input/Output] for years and “they were proud of it”. The COO went so far as to say that every other coin takes a privacy protocol, clones it, tweaks it a little, and calls it as its own.”

Coinbase announced the evaluation and possible listing of several new cryptocurrencies in a release and subsequent tweet, and then all of crypto decided to mock them. Specifically, Krakken (a Coinbase competitor) posted a subtweet that was as salty as the Dead Sea:

And what about Ethereum’s Co-Founder, Vitalik Buterin, and his comments about ‘centralized exchanges’ just six days ago? Essentially taking shots at all of the exchanges that happen to matter at the moment. That wasn’t just salt or shade, he actually believes that they should all burn in hell! Tell us what you really think Vitalik!

There are ongoing feuds that rage constantly between cryptocurrencies like Verge and Tron. With Justing Sun even weighing in when they announced their partnership with Pornhub, yet didn’t have to cough up millions for it. Shade.

And we haven’t even touched the Bitcoin/Bitcoin Cash heat. Or the concept of Bitcoin Maximalism and the debate that is moving its way through crypto circles, with thought leaders all taking sides.

And all of it leads back to the severe decline in the market cap of cryptocurrencies. None of this mattered when the collective crypto value hovered beyond $600 billion. And watch it all go away when the ‘pamp’ resumes.

Trading Crypto: **Saturday: Opportunities Available For Short-Term Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin overnight (US CST) has continued to hold the 6k major support area as it seeks to create a higher low for the bulls. The only area of concern as far as Rogue* Wave pattern shows is that price has already taken back more than 1/2 of the previous leg up – giving way for a greater possibility of the overall downtrend to continue longer-term. Still, with a tight range and ultra-low volatility once again, BTC continues to give a reason for bulls to make short-term longs; there is opportunity currently at bay.

A long for larger players would consist of entry @ 6200 with a watch on the upside target for 6400. This is the next optimal trade available, though categorized as Risk: High.
The total picture still consists of the downtrend intact with lower highs and lower lows as seen in the mid and long-term charts. Additionally, the hourly and 4-hour scale have begun to show signs of creating a bearish-pennant pattern that looks to have a downside break at around 6175.
For the weekend, taking a look at the tech specs shows stochastic levels attempting to seek higher levels with a bit of struggle. This will allow high-risk short gains, but not likely to much of a trade beyond 250 points as the stats show longs against the trend at this time.
MACD levels are positive with a recent cross to the upside as shown here on the 4-hour scale, a good sign for BTC at the moment as well. Safe plays for upside breakout on a pennant reversal with MACD considering should be watched around the 6400 area(resistance)
BTC is currently a No Play – watch for support to either be sought out over the next 24 hours with pennant break down.

SQUARE: Bitcoin Functionality Fueling Cash App Dominance Versus Rivals Venmo, PayPal

Just over a year ago traditional market pundits were calling for Jack Dorsey’s head. Analysts and financial media pundits had decided that he was unfit to lead two companies at the same time (Twitter and Square) and either needed to choose one or the other – or bow out of both. Twitter and Square had struggled to make meaningful progress as the market pushed forward.

But then Bitcoin and the crypto community stepped in.

Square’s Cash app, which added cryptocurrency functionality in January, has defied Bitcoin price trends ever since, growing its user base despite the overall Bitcoin market activity decreasing. Square’s crypto rollout saw major fanfare at the time, with users broadly welcoming the upgrade as something to celebrate.

Downloads of Square Cash year-on-year were up over 150 percent in June, Dolev notes, also focusing on the comparatively lackluster results of Square obtaining regulator permission to serve New York residents.

The year over year growth in both Square’s Cash App and Twitter (both have seen their stock prices nearly double) has effected a complete turnaround for Dorsey and his perceived abilities as a ‘dual-CEO’. Now, pundits applaud his abilities to scale and push each platform forward. And Dorsey often gives crypto a knowing nod when discussing the renewed fortunes of both companies.

Crypto Twitter is a real thing and has been a large part of the uptick in user growth for the social media platform. Dorsey has discussed the crypto dynamic on each of Twitter’s last three quarterly conference calls.

Bitcoin functionality has made the Square Cash App a favorite of crypto enthusiasts, even if the Cash App costs more to use than it’s counterparts, Venmo and PayPal. In fact, Venmo and PayPal user growth have stagnated over the last year as the Cash App has thrived.

The crypto dynamic isn’t just an interesting talking point anymore for both firms (Dorsey has endorsed Bitcoin as the future of money and a possible ‘one world currency’), but rather fast-growing profit segments as users both discuss the ups and downs of crypto and use it for daily purchases within the Cash App.

Dorsey deserves enormous kudos for using forward-thinking connected to crypto functionality within the Square ecosystem (again, Venmo and PayPal have yet to do so) and embracing the crypto Twitter phenomenon even as some have called for intervention in that space.

And the results are clear – Dorsey is a superstar.