We’ve gone back and forth with two sources at the CBOE over the weekend and pulled a little more intel from them. Nobody is changing their tune here, but there has been a wrinkle added to the mix that is noteworthy.
**These notes and updates are specific to the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust. Per this specific report we did not receive a comment from anyone at VanEck or SolidX – this time.**
Both of our CBOE sources, that have commented previously on an expected Bitcoin ETF approval, reached out this afternoon with an updated connected to the approval process for other ETF proposals on the calendar – and the adjusted timing expectation for the CBOE VanEck SolidX listing.
“Nothing to be alarmed about, but the timing could very well be 2019. And it also could be the case that VanEck could end up being the second Bitcoin ETF approved, and not the first. The Direxion submissions are dubious at best given that they add leverage (in both directions) to an already volatile asset class. That set of five ETF’s will ultimately get denied. But both the ProShares and GraniteShares submissions have a shot at being first to market. In my view, it is a less than 50/50 shot, but a shot nonetheless. Any dialogue about VanEck being a 2018 approval may, at this point, prove to be premature. The pattern has been postponements that stretch the full length of the regulatory pathway.”
Our second CBOE source focused on the timing rather than the relative strength of other Bitcoin ETF submissions: “Expect a rather drawn out process. Given the latest postponement, it is clear that every Bitcoin-based ETF has followed the same path – a long regulatory tail. Our only adjustment here is that we expect approval to occur in Q1 of 2019. Nothing else has changed.”
Many legal and regulatory observers have noted the extended timeframe and commented extensively. This is the first time we’ve heard from our CBOE sources regarding any changes in the timing and thought it best to bring it to you.
Still, the narrative is consistent confidence that the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin ETF receives approval. Non-leveraged, $200k buy-in, accredited investor focused, and several other regulatory friendly boxes checked.