The Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF denial moved the crypto markets yesterday. Bitcoin gapped below 8,000 and the crypto community was abuzz as to what the lengthy SEC opinion meant for the next set of crypto ETF submissions.
Specifically, what does it mean for the CBOE’s submission – as they seem to have the strongest institutional case for approval? We reached out to a couple of sources in the institutional space, and one of those sources resides at the CBOE. This is what they had to say…
Our CBOE source: “The Winklevoss denial is irrelevant here. Those that realized that quickly are the voices you should listen to here. Our submission is equally backed by the principles needed to expect and approval, but also carries the heft of a regulatory agency that is part private sector and part pseudo-governmental agency. While we are a public company via capitalization, we are still closely tied to regulatory bodies given the need for public trust, etc, etc. That is where the SEC will focus its approval or disapproval chops. We still believe that approval of our Bitcoin ETF product is a near certainty. Just a question of timing and potential administrative delays.”
A former SEC charge (that we spoke to earlier in the week) gave us this little nugget: “The CBOE product is the most certain from an approval standpoint. The hybrid exchange/regulatory elements there make a world of difference. The SEC will have an internal interest in dealing equitably with the CBOE. Believe me when I say that. The Gemini decision was expected from those in the know and could have easily been predicted. Again, this stuff is more about timing than anything else. Approvals will come, it is more a matter of Q4 2018 or Q1 2019. And as I said before, that will open up the door to more crypto-based product submissions.”
Both of these statements were expected and neither source was moved in any meaningful way by the Winklevoss denial. Some passive dialogue was produced with respect to other Bitcoin ETF submissions, but the focus remains on the CBOE’s significant chances for approval.
We asked one more question of our CBOE source before ending the conversation…
Do you still consider an approval a ‘near certainty’ given today’s news? “Absolutely and without hesitation. It remains the clear expectation here and that hasn’t changed one bit. It would be a major upset were an approval be denied. Again, this is about when not if.”
There you have it. Expect the Bitcoin ETF approval to come at some point. Sooner rather than later? That is what is up for debate here.